Stimulus Complete: Now Comes New Economic Nightmare in Stagflation - Why It's Worse Than Inflation o

The most common is that stagflation happens when there is a so-called negative supply shock. That is, when something that is crucial to an entire economy, such as energy or labor, is suddenly in short supply or becomes more expensive. One obvious example is crude oil.

Stimulus Complete: Now Comes New Economic Nightmare in Stagflation

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In part, the problem was not understanding the difference between supply-induced and demand-induced recession. The pandemic health restrictions told people to stay home, which many were doing anyway. Supply was disrupted and that led to falling employment. Buoying up demand with federal spending and monetary stimulus did help forestall further economic losses but could not boost supply that was being held back by the pandemic. Keynesian demand stimulus could not bring recovery on its own, no matter how hard policy pushed: that would have to await a loosening of COVID restrictions, which came slowly in many provinces.

The U.S. is staring down the barrel of 1970s-style stagflation as economic growth slows and inflation remains elevated, Mohamed El-Erian, the chair of Gramercy Fund Management and chief economic advisor at Allianz, said on Monday.

In economics, stagflation or recession-inflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high or increasing, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment.

Macleod used the term again on 7 July 1970, and the media began also to use it, for example in The Economist on 15 August 1970, and Newsweek on 19 March 1973. John Maynard Keynes did not use the term, but some of his work refers to the conditions that most would recognise as stagflation. In the version of Keynesian macroeconomic theory that was dominant between the end of World War II and the late 1970s, inflation and recession were regarded as mutually exclusive, the relationship between the two being described by the Phillips curve. Stagflation is very costly and difficult to eradicate once it starts.

The term stagflation, a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, was first coined during a period of inflation and unemployment in the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom experienced an outbreak of inflation in the 1960s and 1970s. As inflation rose then, British policy makers failed to recognise the primary role of monetary policy in controlling inflation. Instead, they attempted to use non-monetary policies and devices to respond to the economic crisis. Policy makers also made "inaccurate estimates of the degree of excess demand in the economy, [which] contributed significantly to the outbreak of inflation in the United Kingdom in the 1960s and 1970s."[3]

Economists offer two principal explanations for why stagflation occurs. First, stagflation can result when the economy faces a supply shock, such as a rapid increase in the price of oil. An unfavourable situation like that tends to raise prices at the same time as it slows economic growth by making production more costly and less profitable.[7][8][9][10]

Second, the government can cause stagflation if it creates policies that harm industry while growing the money supply too quickly. These two things would probably have to occur simultaneously because policies that slow economic growth do not usually cause inflation, and policies that cause inflation do not usually slow economic growth.[citation needed]

In the resource scarcity scenario (Zinam 1982), stagflation results when economic growth is inhibited by a restricted supply of raw materials.[24][25] That is, when the actual or relative supply of basic materials (fossil fuels (energy), minerals, agricultural land in production, timber, etc.) decreases and/or cannot be increased fast enough in response to rising or continuing demand. The resource shortage may be a real physical shortage, or a relative scarcity due to factors such as taxes or bad monetary policy influencing the "cost" or availability of raw materials. This is consistent with the cost-push inflation factors in neo-Keynesian theory (above). The way this plays out is that after supply shock occurs, the economy first tries to maintain momentum. That is, consumers and businesses begin paying higher prices to maintain their level of demand. The central bank may exacerbate this by increasing the money supply, by lowering interest rates for example, in an effort to combat a recession. The increased money supply props up the demand for goods and services, though demand would normally drop during a recession.[citation needed]

Thus the main explanation for stagflation under a classical view of the economy is simply policy errors that affect both inflation and the labour market. Ironically, a very clear argument in favour of the classical explanation of stagflation was provided by Keynes himself. In 1919, John Maynard Keynes described the inflation and economic stagnation gripping Europe in his book The Economic Consequences of the Peace. Keynes wrote:

Demand-pull stagflation theory explores the idea that stagflation can result exclusively from monetary shocks without any concurrent supply shocks or negative shifts in economic output potential. Demand-pull theory describes a scenario where stagflation can occur following a period of monetary policy implementations that cause inflation. This theory was first proposed in 1999 by Eduardo Loyo of Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government.[37]

Supply-side economics emerged as a response to US stagflation in the 1970s. It largely attributed inflation to the ending of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 and the lack of a specific price reference in the subsequent monetary policies (Keynesian and Monetarism). Supply-side economists asserted that the contraction component of stagflation resulted from an inflation-induced rise in real tax rates (see bracket creep).[23]

Adherents to the Austrian School maintain that creation of new money ex nihilo benefits the creators and early recipients of the new money relative to late recipients. Money creation is not wealth creation; it merely allows early money recipients to outbid late recipients for resources, goods, and services. Since the actual producers of wealth are typically late recipients, increases in the money supply weakens wealth formation and undermines the rate of economic growth. Austrian economist Frank Shostak says: "The increase in the money supply rate of growth coupled with the slowdown in the rate of growth of goods produced is what the increase in the rate of price inflation is all about. (Note that a price is the amount of money paid for a unit of a good.) What we have here is a faster increase in price inflation and a decline in the rate of growth in the production of goods. But this is exactly what stagflation is all about, i.e., an increase in price inflation and a fall in real economic growth. Popular opinion is that stagflation is totally made up. It seems therefore that the phenomenon of stagflation is the normal outcome of loose monetary policy. This is in agreement with [Phelps and Friedman (PF)]. Contrary to PF, however, we maintain that stagflation is not caused by the fact that in the short run people are fooled by the central bank. Stagflation is the natural result of monetary pumping which weakens the pace of economic growth and at the same time raises the rate of increase of the prices of goods and services."[38]

Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker very sharply increased interest rates from 1979 to 1983 in what was called a "disinflationary scenario". After U.S. prime interest rates had soared into the double-digits, inflation did come down; these interest rates were the highest long-term prime interest rates that had ever existed in modern capital markets.[42] Volcker is often credited with having stopped at least the inflationary side of stagflation, although the American economy also dipped into recession. Starting in approximately 1983, growth began a recovery. Both fiscal stimulus and money supply growth were policy at this time. A five- to six-year jump in unemployment during the Volcker disinflation suggests Volcker may have trusted unemployment to self-correct and return to its natural rate within a reasonable period.[citation needed]

The combination of slow growth and inflation is unusual because inflation typically rises and falls with the pace of growth. The high inflation leaves less scope for policymakers to address growth shortfalls with lower interest rates and higher public spending."}},"@type": "Question","name": "What Is the Misery Index?","acceptedAnswer": "@type": "Answer","text": "The misery index is the sum of the unemployment and inflation rates. It was popularized in the 1970s as a rough measure of the economic distress amid stagflation.","@type": "Question","name": "What Is Purchasing Power?","acceptedAnswer": "@type": "Answer","text": "Purchasing power measures the value of a currency in terms of the goods and services a unit of that currency can buy. Inflation decreases the number of goods or services you can purchase for a set amount of money, lowering purchasing power."]}]}] EducationGeneralDictionaryEconomicsCorporate FinanceRoth IRAStocksMutual FundsETFs401(k)Investing/TradingInvesting EssentialsFundamental AnalysisPortfolio ManagementTrading EssentialsTechnical AnalysisRisk ManagementNewsCompany NewsMarkets NewsCryptocurrency NewsPersonal Finance NewsEconomic NewsGovernment NewsSimulatorYour MoneyPersonal FinanceWealth ManagementBudgeting/SavingBankingCredit CardsHome OwnershipRetirement PlanningTaxesInsuranceReviews & RatingsBest Online BrokersBest Savings AccountsBest Home WarrantiesBest Credit CardsBest Personal LoansBest Student LoansBest Life InsuranceBest Auto InsuranceAdvisorsYour PracticePractice ManagementFinancial Advisor CareersInvestopedia 100Wealth ManagementPortfolio ConstructionFinancial PlanningAcademyPopular CoursesInvesting for BeginnersBecome a Day TraderTrading for BeginnersTechnical AnalysisCourses by TopicAll CoursesTrading CoursesInvesting CoursesFinancial Professional CoursesSubmitTable of ContentsExpandTable of ContentsInflation vs. Stagflation: An OverviewInflationStagflationThe Bottom LineWhy Is Stagflation So Unpopular?What Is the Misery Index?What Is Purchasing Power?EconomicsMacroeconomicsInflation vs. Stagflation: What's the Difference?ByTony DaltorioFull BioTony Daltorio has 30+ years of experience in investments, 18+ years as a broker and supervisor with Charles Schwab, and 9+ years in financial writing.Learn about our editorial policiesUpdated June 02, 2022Reviewed byErika Rasure Reviewed byErika RasureFull BioErika Rasure is globally-recognized as a leading consumer economics subject matter expert, researcher, and educator. She is a financial therapist and transformational coach, with a special interest in helping women learn how to invest. 2ff7e9595c